By Robert Windrem
NBC NEWS PRODUCER
NEW YORK, April 12
[2000] — Cuban-American exile leaders — and many Republicans in Congress —
believe that no Cuban, including Juan Miguel Gonzalez, could withstand the
blandishments of a suburban American lifestyle, that he and all other Cubans
would gladly trade their “miserable” lives in Cuba for the prosperity of the
United States — if only given the chance. Witness House Minority Leader Dick
Armey’s invitation to Gonzalez, offering him a tour of a local supermarket.
But U.S. intelligence suggests otherwise.
THE CIA has long believed that while 1 million to 3 million Cubans would leave the island if they had the opportunity, the rest of the nation’s 11 million people would stay behind.
While an extraordinarily high number, there are still 8 million to 10 million Cubans happy to remain on the island.
Between 1959, when Castro took power, and 1962, about 215,000 Cubans —
many of them middle class — joined 124,000 Cubans estimated to already be
living in the United States.
In 1980, the Mariel boatlift brought
another 125,000 refugees to Florida. Castro opened up the port of Mariel to
allow the departure of convicted criminals and mental patients along with
others who wanted to leave, leading to a tightening of U.S. policy.
New waves of Cuban refugees reached American shores in the mid-1990s
as the Cuban economy continued to deteriorate. Thousands headed for the
Florida coast aboard makeshift rafts were plucked from the ocean or sent to
camps at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo. The United States agreed in
September 1994 to accept a minimum of 20,000 Cubans a year. By 1998, the
number of Cuban-Americans living in the United States was estimated at more
than 1,400,000.
The CIA believes there are many reasons Cubans are
content to remain in their homeland. Some don’t want to be separated from
home, family and friends. Some fear they would never be able to return, and
still others just fear change in general. Officials also say there is a
reservoir of loyalty to Fidel Castro and, as in the case of Juan Miguel
Gonzalez, to the Communist Party.
U.S. officials say they no longer
regard Cuba as a totalitarian state with aggressive policies toward its
people, but instead an authoritarian state, where the public can operate
within certain bounds — just not push the envelope.
More important, Cuban media and Cuban culture long ago raised the banner of nationalism above that of Marxism. The intelligence community says the battle over Elian has presented Castro with a “unique opportunity” to enhance that nationalism.
There is no indication, U.S. officials say, of any nascent rebellion about to spill into the streets, no great outpouring of support for human rights activists in prison. In fact, there are fewer than 100 activists on the island and a support group of perhaps 1,000 more, according to U.S. officials.
No doubt, they say, continuing hardship — and an increasingly fragile infrastructure — could lead to demonstrations at some point, but there have been no such protests since the riots of Aug. 4, 1994, when 30,000 people gathered in the streets of Havana, frightening Cuban officials and shocking U.S. intelligence.
Officials say they are unsure of how Castro will use a victory in the Elian crisis to enhance his position, but they have no doubt he will try.